World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 44%
24h vol $13M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $619.2K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 7%
24h vol $515.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 27: 100%
24h vol $311.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
No: 86%
24h vol $218.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 28: 90%
24h vol $115.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Benjamin Netanyahu: 57%
24h vol $109.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 16%
24h vol $95.3K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
June 30, 2027: 53%
24h vol $90.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $88.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
Bibi: 73%
24h vol $84.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $80.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 94%
24h vol $68.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $65.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $59.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 32%
24h vol $44.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Ursula von der Leyen: 60%
24h vol $41.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No: 99%
24h vol $39.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $36.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $36.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
6-7: 56%
24h vol $33.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 80%
24h vol $32.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 98%
24h vol $30.9K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4: 66%
24h vol $30.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $29.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 53%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?
7: 56%
24h vol $25.8K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?
March 31, 2027: 20%
24h vol $23.9K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Ra'am: 99%
24h vol $23.9K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?
6%+: 39%
24h vol $22.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $22K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Together # of seats?
11-13: 50%
24h vol $22K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $20.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No: 93%
24h vol $19.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?
<4: 96%
24h vol $17.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $17.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 72%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $15K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $14.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 12%
24h vol $13.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?
<2.75%: 56%
24h vol $13.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
24h vol $13.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Person X: 50%
24h vol $13K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?
No: 93%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?
7.5%+: 82%
24h vol $12K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
No: 92%
24h vol $11.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 58%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026