Strategies
Expected value, position sizing and the mistakes to avoid.
Contrarian Trading: Fading Market Overreactions
Explore contrarian trading strategies by identifying market overreactions and potential corrections. Learn to spot opportunities when markets become overly emotional.
Bankroll Management for Prediction Markets: A Beginner's Guide
Learn the essentials of bankroll management and position sizing to navigate prediction markets responsibly. Master risk management for sustainable trading.
Algorithmic Trading & Bots in Prediction Markets
Explore algorithmic trading, HFT, and trading bots on prediction markets. Learn how the Polymarket API facilitates automated strategies for advanced traders.
Theta Decay and Time Decay in Prediction Markets
Understand how time decay (theta decay) impacts your positions in prediction markets as the resolution date approaches, and how to adapt your strategies.
News Trading on Prediction Markets
Learn how news events, from political announcements to economic reports, can influence prediction market odds and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy.
Speculation vs. Hedging in Prediction Markets
Explore the key differences between speculation and hedging in prediction markets. Learn how to use these strategies for different financial goals.
EMH & Finding Your Edge in Prediction Markets
Explore the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and its implications for prediction markets. Learn how 'wisdom of crowds' applies and how to find your unique edge.
Prediction Market Arbitrage: Kalshi & Polymarket
Discover how arbitrage opportunities arise between prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and the strategies to consider.
Market Making in Prediction Markets: An Advanced Strategy
Dive into market making in prediction markets. Learn how market makers provide liquidity, capture the bid-ask spread, and manage risks with advanced strategies.
Can You Invest in Polymarket? Prediction Markets, Stocks and Private Markets
Can you invest in Polymarket or buy Polymarket stock? How people invest in prediction markets via stocks, private market valuations and trading.
Polymarket Copy Trading: How It Works and the Risks
What Polymarket copy trading is, how people copy trades on Polymarket, tools like PolyCopy, and the risks of following other traders.
How to Make Money on Polymarket: Realistic Strategies for 2026
Can you make money on Polymarket? Realistic Polymarket trading strategies for 2026 — research, market making, arbitrage and negative-risk markets — and the risks.
Kelly Position Sizing for Prediction Market Bets
Understand the Kelly criterion for sizing prediction-market positions, why fractional Kelly is safer, with worked examples.
Expected Value in Prediction Markets: How to Calculate It
Learn how to calculate expected value for a prediction-market share, with worked examples and links to calculators.
Common Mistakes New Prediction Market Traders Make
Avoid the most common mistakes beginners make trading prediction markets, from ignoring fees to overbetting.
Prediction market strategies
Strategy basics without profit promises: expected value, Kelly sizing, bankroll management, market making, arbitrage, news trading, algorithmic trading and the efficient market hypothesis. Speculation carries risk — always size positions you can afford to lose.