World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
24h vol $825.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 45%
24h vol $587.2K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $432.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $275.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $213K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $114.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 15: 96%
24h vol $80.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $77.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $72K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $68.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $67.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 11: 80%
24h vol $39K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $37.5K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 16: 87%
24h vol $35.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 11: 98%
24h vol $27.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $27.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 35%
24h vol $26.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT): 76%
24h vol $25K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $24.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $24.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $24K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 81%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $15K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $13.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $13.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $13.6K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 78%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person P: 50%
24h vol $8.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia military action against EU country by...?
December 31, 2027: 17%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?
No: 99%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 88%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 89%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 59%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 61%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $5.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 81%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 50%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 87%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Yisrael Beiteinu: 53%
24h vol $4K · Ends Jun 30, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Candidate T: 50%
24h vol $4K · Ends Apr 18, 2027