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Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Markets

  • June 30, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3.7M · Liquidity —

  • December 31, 2025

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.4M · Liquidity —

  • December 31, 2026

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $384K · Liquidity $38.5K

  • September 30, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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