World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $740.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 61%
24h vol $584.1K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $500.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro: 72%
24h vol $106.9K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $95.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 87%
24h vol $86.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $82K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 78%
24h vol $72.4K · Ends Sep 14, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 94%
24h vol $66.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $64.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5%: 60%
24h vol $45.6K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
No: 94%
24h vol $44.8K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2026: 10%
24h vol $35.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms: 19%
24h vol $29.8K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan Santos: 52%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?
No meeting by December 31, 2027: 81%
24h vol $23.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 81%
24h vol $21.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ: 95%
24h vol $21.5K · Ends Oct 6, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?
2-4%: 49%
24h vol $19.9K · Ends Oct 4, 2026