Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Markets
Jared Kushner
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $215K · Liquidity —
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
- Yes20%
- No80%
Volume $119.8K · Liquidity $18.8K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $115.4K · Liquidity —
J.D. Vance
- Yes16%
- No84%
Volume $74K · Liquidity $18.8K
Steve Witkoff
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $69K · Liquidity —
Masoud Pezeshkian
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $65K · Liquidity $20.7K
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
- Yes9%
- No92%
Volume $56K · Liquidity $1.8K
Rafael Grossi
- Yes13%
- No88%
Volume $46.4K · Liquidity $15.4K
Abbas Araghchi
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $45.6K · Liquidity —
Donald Trump
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $42.5K · Liquidity $30K
Marco Rubio
- Yes8%
- No93%
Volume $41.4K · Liquidity $26.1K
Ishaq Dar
- Yes21%
- No79%
Volume $37.4K · Liquidity $16.6K
Nick Stewart
- Yes25%
- No76%
Volume $26.3K · Liquidity $14.3K
Kazem Gharibabadi
- Yes27%
- No74%
Volume $25.6K · Liquidity $24.8K
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
- Yes21%
- No80%
Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $14.8K
Mojtaba Khamenei
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $25.3K
Pete Hegseth
- Yes7%
- No94%
Volume $22.4K · Liquidity $27.8K
Ahmad Vahidi
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $20.8K · Liquidity $29.1K
Mohammed bin Salman
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $17.3K · Liquidity $21.1K
Esmail Qaani
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $12.4K · Liquidity $32.2K
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets

Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 62%
24h vol $1.3M · Ends Oct 5, 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
24h vol $1.2M · Ends Nov 8, 2028

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $704.6K · Ends Apr 19, 2027

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
24h vol $474.9K · Ends Nov 8, 2028

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $471.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 47%
24h vol $469.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?
200-219: 54%
24h vol $446.1K · Ends Oct 2, 2026

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 73%
24h vol $390.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 7: 92%
24h vol $350.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets September 28 - September 30, 2026?
40-64: 100%
24h vol $337.6K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027: 39%
24h vol $248.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance: 50%
24h vol $227.2K · Ends Nov 8, 2028

