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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Markets

  • Jared Kushner

    Closed
    • Yes100%
    • No0%

    Volume $215K · Liquidity —

  • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $119.8K · Liquidity $18.8K

  • Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

    Closed
    • Yes100%
    • No0%

    Volume $115.4K · Liquidity —

  • J.D. Vance

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $74K · Liquidity $18.8K

  • Steve Witkoff

    Closed
    • Yes100%
    • No0%

    Volume $69K · Liquidity —

  • Masoud Pezeshkian

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $65K · Liquidity $20.7K

  • Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi

    • Yes9%
    • No92%

    Volume $56K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Rafael Grossi

    • Yes13%
    • No88%

    Volume $46.4K · Liquidity $15.4K

  • Abbas Araghchi

    Closed
    • Yes100%
    • No0%

    Volume $45.6K · Liquidity —

  • Donald Trump

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $42.5K · Liquidity $30K

  • Marco Rubio

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $41.4K · Liquidity $26.1K

  • Ishaq Dar

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $37.4K · Liquidity $16.6K

  • Nick Stewart

    • Yes25%
    • No76%

    Volume $26.3K · Liquidity $14.3K

  • Kazem Gharibabadi

    • Yes27%
    • No74%

    Volume $25.6K · Liquidity $24.8K

  • Majid Takht-Ravanchi

    • Yes21%
    • No80%

    Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $14.8K

  • Mojtaba Khamenei

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $25.3K

  • Pete Hegseth

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $22.4K · Liquidity $27.8K

  • Ahmad Vahidi

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $20.8K · Liquidity $29.1K

  • Mohammed bin Salman

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $17.3K · Liquidity $21.1K

  • Esmail Qaani

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $12.4K · Liquidity $32.2K

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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