Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
24h vol $625.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 60%
24h vol $595K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $533.8K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?
200-219: 46%
24h vol $475.3K · Ends Oct 2, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 19%
24h vol $382.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets September 28 - September 30, 2026?
40-64: 100%
24h vol $347.1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 30: 98%
24h vol $271.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 77%
24h vol $257.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027: 39%
24h vol $248.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $227.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 80%
24h vol $134.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?
200-219: 26%
24h vol $134.2K · Ends Oct 6, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance: 50%
24h vol $128.2K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 86%
24h vol $126.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 73%
24h vol $119.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
24h vol $115.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2027: 32%
24h vol $112.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 64%
24h vol $111.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro: 72%
24h vol $109.8K · Ends Oct 5, 2026