Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro: 72%
24h vol $109.8K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 80%
24h vol $104.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $97.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No: 100%
24h vol $97.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $90.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2027: 30%
24h vol $87K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Lula: 72%
24h vol $84.8K · Ends Oct 5, 2026
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2027: 34%
24h vol $80.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $77.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?
180-199: 26%
24h vol $69.9K · Ends Oct 9, 2026
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $68.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
840-879: 70%
24h vol $63.4K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Who will Trump meet with in September?
Javier Milei: 84%
24h vol $60.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $57.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 93%
24h vol $56.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 68%
24h vol $53K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 70%
24h vol $53K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 78%
24h vol $52K · Ends Sep 14, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 94%
24h vol $50.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?
October 31: 18%
24h vol $49.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026