World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 79%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $759.2K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 21: 99%
24h vol $688K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 53%
24h vol $641.8K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $453.1K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $303.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 49%
24h vol $266.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $262.7K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $118.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $101.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 92%
24h vol $101.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $94.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $90.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $87.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
December 31: 22%
24h vol $69K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 20: 87%
24h vol $66.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $66K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $55.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 27%
24h vol $54.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 22: 100%
24h vol $53K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 91%
24h vol $50.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $44.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $40.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $35.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $33.8K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2027: 27%
24h vol $26.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 56%
24h vol $24.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 81%
24h vol $23.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 91%
24h vol $22.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $19.3K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout
78-80%: 60%
24h vol $18.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $17K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $16.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 40%
24h vol $16.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 86%
24h vol $16K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Yulia Navalnaya: 10%
24h vol $15.7K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela: 10%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
UAE: 71%
24h vol $12.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
No: 86%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
March 31, 2027: 38%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?
No meeting by December 31, 2027: 74%
24h vol $10K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Other: 50%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Macron out by...?
No: 95%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
No: 91%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 84%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027