World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 47%
24h vol $808.8K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 50%
24h vol $568.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 21: 97%
24h vol $533.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $301.1K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $215.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
November 15: 3%
24h vol $163K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Curfew in a major French city by...?
December 31: 93%
24h vol $138K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $95.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 6: 92%
24h vol $90.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 66%
24h vol $89.4K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $62.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $60.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $58K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $53K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
June 30, 2027: 61%
24h vol $52K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 23%
24h vol $45.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $43.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 38%
24h vol $43.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $40.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 60%
24h vol $38.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $35.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Ursula von der Leyen: 46%
24h vol $30.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US military action against Cuba by...?
No: 91%
24h vol $30.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $24.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 21: 89%
24h vol $23.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
No: 89%
24h vol $23.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No: 99%
24h vol $20.8K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $20.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $19.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 93%
24h vol $18.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $16K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland: 14%
24h vol $14.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 76%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 32%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $13.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 72%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
October 31: 99%
24h vol $10.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
No: 86%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 86%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela: 9%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 42%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout
78-80%: 58%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $7.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?
<0.75%: 94%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026