World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
24h vol $639.3K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $430.7K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $421.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $298.7K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $274.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 14: 98%
24h vol $199.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $174.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 81%
24h vol $130.6K · Ends Sep 14, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $111.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $70.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $64.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $57K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 4: 85%
24h vol $26.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 5: 95%
24h vol $26.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $26K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $25K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $23K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 35%
24h vol $18K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $14.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $13.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $13.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 87%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 80%
24h vol $10.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 88%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person P: 50%
24h vol $8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela: 17%
24h vol $7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Candidate T: 50%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
October 31: 71%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 89%
24h vol $6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 81%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $5.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Candidate Q: 50%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Yisrael Beiteinu: 53%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jun 30, 2027
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 61%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Apr 1, 2028