World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $930.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $924K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 47%
24h vol $768.4K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 21: 98%
24h vol $566K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $334.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $110.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $98.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 6: 90%
24h vol $94.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $79.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 75%
24h vol $59.4K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
June 30, 2027: 63%
24h vol $52.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $51.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $47.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $37.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 61%
24h vol $35.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $34.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 89%
24h vol $33.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $32.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Ursula von der Leyen: 41%
24h vol $30.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US military action against Cuba by...?
No: 91%
24h vol $30K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 20: 91%
24h vol $28.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $27K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Curfew in a major French city by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
No: 89%
24h vol $24.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 16%
24h vol $24K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Macron out by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $23.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $22K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 93%
24h vol $16.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $13.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 72%
24h vol $12.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $12K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 12%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 42%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Druzkhivka: 30%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $9.1K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland: 14%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 32%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
New pandemic in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
No: 91%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person J: 50%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
No: 76%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027