World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $1.2M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 93%
24h vol $781.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $655.6K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $321.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $297.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $268.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $84.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $68.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $67.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 17: 94%
24h vol $65K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $63K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
March 31, 2027: 24%
24h vol $62K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $58.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel military action against Syria by...?
November 30: 25%
24h vol $37.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 22%
24h vol $28.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $24.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $22.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 73%
24h vol $22.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 74%
24h vol $21.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $19.7K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 85%
24h vol $15K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $14.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 32%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 40%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Person U: 50%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 94%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
No: 87%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 61%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes: 83%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $9.3K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
March 31, 2027: 64%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Macron out by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland: 12%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
No Next Chancellor before 2028: 53%
24h vol $5.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin Salman: 80%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $5.2K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 20-30%: 61%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 89%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
EU dissolves before 2027?
No: 98%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person Q: 50%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027