World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 83%
24h vol $705.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 47%
24h vol $554.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 44%
24h vol $510.9K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $313.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $185.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $138.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $94K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $87.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $63.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $62.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $43K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $34.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $32.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland: 13%
24h vol $32.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $32.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $30.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 15: 86%
24h vol $29.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $29.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $28.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 76%
24h vol $27.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $25.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT): 72%
24h vol $24.3K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 90%
24h vol $19.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 96%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 95%
24h vol $17.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 62%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 4: 78%
24h vol $15.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $15.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $14K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 87%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Russia military action against EU country by...?
December 31, 2027: 20%
24h vol $12.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 56%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes: 82%
24h vol $11K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 49%
24h vol $11K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 78%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 4: 96%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
4+: 59%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Candidate B: 50%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 87%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?
No: 100%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 94%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 76%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
New pandemic in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person J: 50%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
The Democrats: 54%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Jun 30, 2027