World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 44%
24h vol $486.6K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $379.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $326.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $301.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 14: 95%
24h vol $200.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $169.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 96%
24h vol $162.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $136.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $60.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 27%
24h vol $57.8K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $32.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $24.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $22K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $21.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $21.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $19K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $18.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $16.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $15.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
24h vol $15.1K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 87%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 88%
24h vol $13K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 88%
24h vol $12K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 23%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Candidate Z: 50%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 79%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 78%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Candidate U: 50%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 86%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 61%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 86%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $3K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 60%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place
Party D: 50%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Yes: 56%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027