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Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Markets

  • April 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $4.2M · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.3M · Liquidity $34.2K

  • June 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $765.9K · Liquidity $0

  • August 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $22.8K · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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