Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 85%
24h vol $780.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
24h vol $754.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
260-279: 32%
24h vol $565.5K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 44%
24h vol $537K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $536.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $447.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 93%
24h vol $362.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 65%
24h vol $300K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $297.2K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $252.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 93%
24h vol $225.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $182.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 65%
24h vol $173.2K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
260-279: 18%
24h vol $166.1K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $148.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Abbas Araghchi: 42%
24h vol $129.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $116.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $111.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 77%
24h vol $111K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $110.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $109.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
24h vol $97K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $85.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $73.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $73.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 87%
24h vol $72.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $70.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 46%
24h vol $66.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $63K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $59K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 69%
24h vol $58.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
New York Governor Election Winner
Kathy Hochul (D): 94%
24h vol $57.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D): 52%
24h vol $55.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $53.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $53.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Michigan Governor Election Winner
Jocelyn Benson (D): 95%
24h vol $50.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's Uranium: 16%
24h vol $47.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 44%
24h vol $46.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 70%
24h vol $46.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $46.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 91%
24h vol $43.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 54%
24h vol $43.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $41.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $40.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 16%
24h vol $39.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
240-259: 14%
24h vol $36.9K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 96%
24h vol $34.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027