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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Markets

  • None before 2027

    • Yes32%
    • No69%

    Volume $141.5K · Liquidity $34.2K

  • Netanyahu - Israel PM

    • Yes35%
    • No66%

    Volume $140.8K · Liquidity $6.9K

  • Merz - German Chancellor

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $27.4K · Liquidity $7.2K

  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $26.5K · Liquidity $12.7K

  • Lecornu - France PM

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $21.5K · Liquidity $12K

  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $21.5K · Liquidity $6.9K

  • Macron - France President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $21.2K · Liquidity $12.6K

  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $20.6K · Liquidity $9.9K

  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $20.6K · Liquidity $7.8K

  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $19.8K · Liquidity $13.7K

  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $19.4K · Liquidity $8K

  • Trump - USA President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $18.1K · Liquidity $13.5K

  • Putin - Russia President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $17.5K · Liquidity $17.5K

  • Takaichi - Japan PM

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $17.2K · Liquidity $18K

  • Newsom - California Governor

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $16.9K · Liquidity $18.6K

  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $16.9K · Liquidity $8.4K

  • Sánchez - Spanish PM

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $16.2K · Liquidity $6.4K

  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $15.6K · Liquidity $12.7K

  • Milei - Argentina President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $15.1K · Liquidity $11.3K

  • Abbas - President of Palestine

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $14.7K · Liquidity $5.7K

  • al-Sharaa - Syria President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $14.6K · Liquidity $9K

  • Albanese - Australia PM

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $14.3K · Liquidity $8.6K

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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