Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 17: 99%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $723.7K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $691.5K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
90-114: 93%
24h vol $610.8K · Ends Oct 17, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $442.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $390.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $356.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
24h vol $348.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 60%
24h vol $316.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 53%
24h vol $294.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
360-379: 23%
24h vol $289.6K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $241.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
24h vol $233.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $228.5K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
24h vol $225.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 82%
24h vol $221.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $157.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $156.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
24h vol $155.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $131.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
280-299: 13%
24h vol $129.4K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 78%
24h vol $128.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $110.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 95%
24h vol $97.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 64%
24h vol $94.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Press Secretary?
Candidate CB: 50%
24h vol $87.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 68%
24h vol $81.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $78.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $71K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $70.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
24h vol $69.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 61%
24h vol $62.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
24h vol $62.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
240-259: 11%
24h vol $53.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No: 76%
24h vol $45.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 96%
24h vol $38.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 69%
24h vol $37.8K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 26%
24h vol $36.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $36.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 93%
24h vol $36.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 42%
24h vol $35.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $34.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate AA: 50%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
40-64: 41%
24h vol $33.5K · Ends Oct 19, 2026
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 96%
24h vol $30.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 67%
24h vol $29.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D): 53%
24h vol $29.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei: 48%
24h vol $29.3K · Ends Oct 25, 2027