Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
24h vol $901.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $745.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
24h vol $735.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
24h vol $485.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $465.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $442.8K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $410.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
240-259: 30%
24h vol $408.5K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $372.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $335.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $296.7K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $280.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 52%
24h vol $193.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
65-89: 63%
24h vol $185.2K · Ends Oct 14, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $185.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $171.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance: 49%
24h vol $162.1K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $158K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $155.9K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 22%
24h vol $146.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 55%
24h vol $140.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%: 63%
24h vol $131.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $115.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $106.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
220-239: 17%
24h vol $101.3K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 65%
24h vol $98.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $86.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $82K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 72%
24h vol $78.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $76.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
24h vol $75.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 84%
24h vol $68.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $60.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 82%
24h vol $58.6K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $54.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 41%
24h vol $52.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate U: 50%
24h vol $47.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 27%
24h vol $46.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
24h vol $46.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $43.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 21%
24h vol $36.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $36.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 22%
24h vol $36.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $35.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 91%
24h vol $35.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Pipeline: 96%
24h vol $32.8K · Ends Oct 13, 2026
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 81%
24h vol $31.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 49%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027