Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 87%
24h vol $572.5K · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 75%
24h vol $82.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 76%
24h vol $77.6K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 88%
24h vol $62.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $100: 90%
24h vol $38.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 26%
24h vol $37.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $34.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 94%
24h vol $31.4K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+: 45%
24h vol $23.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 75%
24h vol $22.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%: 28%
24h vol $17.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX: 70%
24h vol $14.7K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 74%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 67%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 84%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
No: 90%
24h vol $10K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
$1.50–$1.75T: 50%
24h vol $10K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
↓ $172: 84%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%: 39%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 96%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T: 50%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 24%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 63%
24h vol $5.5K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
No: 98%
24h vol $5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6%: 76%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%: 5%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Will gas hit __ by end of October?
↑ $4.50: 48%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 60%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 59%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
Bank of Korea decision in October?
No Change: 97%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Oct 22, 2026
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%: 78%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
3.0 - 3.5M: 26%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Yes: 60%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
No: 88%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Core PCE YoY - September 2026
3.1%: 54%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
No Change: 92%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 80%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
No change: 96%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 51%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%: 50%
24h vol $1K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
What will be in the UK Budget?
CGT increase: 28%
24h vol $1K · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 92%
24h vol $1K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?
$458K - $471K: 25%
24h vol $1K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
No Change: 83%
24h vol $1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.6-2.7M: 30%
24h vol $939.4 · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $928.8 · Ends Dec 31, 2026