Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Markets
Pause-Hike-Pause
- Yes18%
- No83%
Volume $269.6 · Liquidity $4.2K
Hike-Pause-Pause
- Yes8%
- No93%
Volume $269.5 · Liquidity $3.7K
Hike-Pause-Hike
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $239 · Liquidity $3.5K
Other
- Yes16%
- No85%
Volume $229 · Liquidity $3.7K
Pause-Hike-Hike
- Yes13%
- No88%
Volume $208 · Liquidity $4.3K
Pause-Pause-Pause
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $153 · Liquidity $3.6K
Hike-Hike-Pause
- Yes11%
- No90%
Volume $146 · Liquidity $4.5K
Pause-Pause-Hike
- Yes12%
- No89%
Volume $141 · Liquidity $3.9K
Hike-Hike-Hike
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $129 · Liquidity $3.4K
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 54%
24h vol $18.1K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

Fed Decision in January?
No change: 54%
24h vol $28.7K · Ends Jan 28, 2027

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $88.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 89%
24h vol $35.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 22%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.65%: 74%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.10%: 81%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%: 19%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%: 48%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 70%
24h vol $70.3K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $25.7K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0%: 73%
24h vol $694.4 · Ends Oct 30, 2026

