Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 61%
24h vol $2.9M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 75%
24h vol $411K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 81%
24h vol $224.9K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 80%
24h vol $134.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIA: 100%
24h vol $47.4K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $44.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 82%
24h vol $22.7K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 85%
24h vol $20.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 61%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 80%
24h vol $17.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
No change: 70%
24h vol $17.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%: 5%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Core PCE YoY - August 2026
≤3.0%: 100%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Sep 30, 2026
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 48%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M: 30%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 42%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?
$1.125M - $1.161M: 100%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Oct 11, 2026
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%: 45%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.60%: 92%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 87%
24h vol $5.2K · Ends Oct 24, 2026