Politika Prediction Markets
Izbori, zakonodavstvo i politički događaji kako ih vrednuje tržište.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Svaka se cijena kreće od 0 do 1 USD i može se tumačiti kao vjerojatnost koju tržište pripisuje određenom ishodu: 0,62 USD znači otprilike 62 %. Cijene se mijenjaju sa svakom transakcijom, pa predstavljaju zajedničku procjenu sudionika, a ne jamstvo. Prije trgovanja provjerite gore navedena pravila za utvrđivanje ishoda, obujam trgovanja i likvidnost te riskirajte samo novac koji si možete priuštiti izgubiti.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $938K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $859.5K · Ends 31. lis 2026.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $830.1K · Ends 31. lis 2026.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $701.2K · Ends 8. stu 2028.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $612.8K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 69%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 13. lis 2026.
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 19. tra 2027.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $458.7K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $402.6K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $312.1K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 46%
24h vol $260.5K · Ends 28. lis 2026.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $188.5K · Ends 26. lis 2026.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $175.1K · Ends 8. stu 2028.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $170.1K · Ends 26. lis 2026.
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $156K · Ends 25. lis 2026.
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 26%
24h vol $153.1K · Ends 16. lis 2026.
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $126.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $125K · Ends 26. lis 2026.
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $78.7K · Ends 8. stu 2028.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $69K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $65.8K · Ends 1. sij 2029.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 1. srp 2027.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $64.8K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1. kol 2027.
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $55.6K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
24h vol $52.1K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $46.4K · Ends 1. stu 2026.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 56%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $45.2K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends 29. stu 2026.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $39.1K · Ends 1. sij 2029.
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
40-64: 56%
24h vol $38.5K · Ends 14. lis 2026.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $37K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $36.4K · Ends 1. srp 2027.
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $34.7K · Ends 1. srp 2027.
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 51%
24h vol $34.5K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $33K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $28.8K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $26.9K · Ends 1. tra 2028.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
24h vol $25.3K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 58%
24h vol $25K · Ends 1. sij 2028.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $24.8K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $24.2K · Ends 1. sij 2029.