Politika Prediction Markets
Izbori, zakonodavstvo i politički događaji kako ih vrednuje tržište.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Svaka se cijena kreće od 0 do 1 USD i može se tumačiti kao vjerojatnost koju tržište pripisuje određenom ishodu: 0,62 USD znači otprilike 62 %. Cijene se mijenjaju sa svakom transakcijom, pa predstavljaju zajedničku procjenu sudionika, a ne jamstvo. Prije trgovanja provjerite gore navedena pravila za utvrđivanje ishoda, obujam trgovanja i likvidnost te riskirajte samo novac koji si možete priuštiti izgubiti.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 59%
24h vol $23.4K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
120-139: 46%
24h vol $23K · Ends 13. lis 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $20.6K · Ends 1. stu 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $20.5K · Ends 1. pro 2026.
NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 96%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
MO-02 House Election Winner
Ann Wagner (R): 77%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 81%
24h vol $17K · Ends 26. lis 2026.
GA-11 House Election Winner
John Cowan (R): 96%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 94%
24h vol $16K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $14.8K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 67%
24h vol $13.5K · Ends 27. lis 2026.
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Alabama Governor Election Winner
Tommy Tuberville (R): 94%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 53%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 31. pro 2026.
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 88%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes: 92%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 46%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends 31. pro 2026.
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 30. stu 2026.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
140-159: 26%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends 16. lis 2026.
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1. stu 2026.
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1. stu 2026.
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 96%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $10.1K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $10K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 89%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends 19. tra 2027.
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 31: 52%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 31. pro 2026.
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $9.1K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff: 42%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
No: 78%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 55%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Ilhan Omar arrested by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D): 89%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
December 31: 39%
24h vol $7.2K · Ends 1. sij 2027.
NM-02 House Election Winner
Gabe Vasquez (D): 92%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Lula: 68%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 26. lis 2026.
NY-24 House Election Winner
Claudia Tenney (R): 97%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 95%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
WI-05 House Election Winner
Scott Fitzgerald (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
TX-26 House Election Winner
Brandon Gill (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 4. stu 2026.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
200+: 19%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends 20. lis 2026.
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 84%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 4. stu 2026.