Politiikka Prediction Markets
Vaalit, lainsäädäntö ja poliittiset tapahtumat markkinan hinnoittelemina.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $938K · Ends 4.11.2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $859.5K · Ends 31.10.2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $830.1K · Ends 31.10.2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $701.2K · Ends 8.11.2028
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $612.8K · Ends 4.11.2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 69%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 13.10.2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 19.4.2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $458.7K · Ends 1.1.2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $402.6K · Ends 1.1.2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $312.1K · Ends 1.1.2027
What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)
No: 99%
24h vol $296.1K · Ends 11.10.2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 46%
24h vol $260.5K · Ends 28.10.2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $188.5K · Ends 26.10.2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $175.1K · Ends 8.11.2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $170.1K · Ends 26.10.2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $156K · Ends 25.10.2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 26%
24h vol $153.1K · Ends 16.10.2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $126.2K · Ends 4.11.2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $125K · Ends 26.10.2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.2K · Ends 4.11.2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $78.7K · Ends 8.11.2028
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $69K · Ends 1.1.2027
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $65.8K · Ends 1.1.2029
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 1.7.2027
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $64.8K · Ends 1.1.2027
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1.8.2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends 4.11.2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $55.6K · Ends 1.1.2027
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
24h vol $52.1K · Ends 1.1.2027
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $46.5K · Ends 1.11.2026
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 56%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends 1.1.2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $45.2K · Ends 1.1.2027
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends 29.11.2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $42.8K · Ends 4.11.2026
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $39.1K · Ends 1.1.2029
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
40-64: 56%
24h vol $38.5K · Ends 14.10.2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $37K · Ends 1.1.2027
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $35.3K · Ends 1.1.2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $34.7K · Ends 1.7.2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $34.4K · Ends 4.11.2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends 1.7.2027
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 51%
24h vol $33.6K · Ends 1.1.2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $33K · Ends 4.11.2026
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $28.8K · Ends 1.1.2027
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $26.9K · Ends 1.4.2028
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 57%
24h vol $25K · Ends 1.1.2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $24.8K · Ends 1.1.2027
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $24.2K · Ends 1.1.2029