Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet
October 31
- Yes28%
- No72%
Volume $135.4K · Liquidity $73.7K
December 31
- Yes54%
- No47%
Volume $83K · Liquidity $53.5K
October 15
- Yes13%
- No87%
Volume $39.5K · Liquidity $25.3K
November 30
- Yes48%
- No53%
Volume $15.4K · Liquidity $30.6K
September 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity —
Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä
Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.
Lisää Politiikka-markkinoita

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
24h vol $394.4K · Ends 1.1.2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $295.3K · Ends 1.1.2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $109.8K · Ends 1.1.2027

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.4K · Ends 1.1.2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $43.4K · Ends 1.1.2027

Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 1.1.2027

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 43%
24h vol $10.7K · Ends 1.1.2027

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1.1.2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 43%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 31.12.2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $22.4K · Ends 1.12.2026

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 66%
24h vol $13.1K · Ends 30.11.2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $643.3K · Ends 4.11.2026

