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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Markets

  • March 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $4.6M · Liquidity —

  • April 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $2.4M · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $858.9K · Liquidity $69.8K

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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