World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $948.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 79%
24h vol $895.2K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 48%
24h vol $719.9K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 21: 98%
24h vol $575.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $354.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $175.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $127.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $92.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 16: 86%
24h vol $82.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 75%
24h vol $61.3K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 23%
24h vol $60.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $47K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $45.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 89%
24h vol $38K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 60%
24h vol $33.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
No: 89%
24h vol $32.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $31K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 20: 91%
24h vol $29.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $27.6K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
US military action against Cuba by...?
No: 92%
24h vol $27.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Macron out by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 16%
24h vol $23.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $22.4K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Curfew in a major French city by...?
December 31: 27%
24h vol $18K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $16.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 93%
24h vol $16.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $15.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
June 30, 2027: 55%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 72%
24h vol $11K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Druzkhivka: 30%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 12%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland: 14%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 42%
24h vol $8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
The Democrats: 57%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends Jun 30, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 86%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
New pandemic in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
No: 91%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person J: 50%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Mar 1, 2027