Tech Prediction Markets
AI, product launches and big-tech milestones.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $2.1M · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 64%
24h vol $241.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google: 71%
24h vol $142.6K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
CXMT: 31%
24h vol $64.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31: 98%
24h vol $60K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 74%
24h vol $48.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic: 45%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
Yes: 68%
24h vol $39.8K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 28%
24h vol $36.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027: 52%
24h vol $34K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027: 63%
24h vol $33.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 25%
24h vol $32.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Russia: 29%
24h vol $29.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 24%
24h vol $27.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
No: 84%
24h vol $17.4K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
October 20: 29%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 67%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31: 92%
24h vol $14.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 22%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Company E: 50%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+: 93%
24h vol $11K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 21%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
Denver, CO: 90%
24h vol $9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Company E: 50%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
12-15: 81%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 71%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Anthropic: 28%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?
Inde Navarrette: 59%
24h vol $6K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
1500+: 90%
24h vol $6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 25%
24h vol $5.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
OpenAI: 60%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
$5.00-$5.50: 19%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Alphabet: 58%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
No: 96%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Nov 20, 2026
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 25%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
OpenAI resumes training on...?
Not resumed by October 20: 82%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 77%
24h vol $3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
AI lab F: 50%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$7.00+: 73%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
Muse from Meta: 97%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Meta headcount above __ in Q3?
66000: 86%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1495+: 34%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
No: 83%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Yes: 91%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
No release by October 31: 96%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$5.50+: 65%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
Google: 52%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026