Tech Prediction Markets
AI, product launches and big-tech milestones.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $465.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 21%
24h vol $146.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google: 69%
24h vol $118.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 24%
24h vol $65.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 25%
24h vol $63.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $56.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 79%
24h vol $37.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic: 43%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 94%
24h vol $27.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 20%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31: 90%
24h vol $26.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $25.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 25%
24h vol $24.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
NuScale announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 28%
24h vol $24.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 25%
24h vol $22.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Google: 54%
24h vol $20.3K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $19.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
October 13: 19%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
No: 81%
24h vol $16.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Meta's Watermelon Model: Text Arena Debut?
1480+: 98%
24h vol $11.7K · Ends Jun 30, 2027
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Company A: 50%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
November 30: 35%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 78%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+: 42%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Yes: 90%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+: 90%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
45%+: 85%
24h vol $7.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Company B: 50%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by October 31: 95%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 88%
24h vol $7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Second-best AI Lab end of October?
Anthropic: 62%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Company H: 50%
24h vol $5.4K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
No release by October 31: 90%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
DeepSeek: 95%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
OpenAI: 59%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Other: 50%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Best AI model on October 26?
gemini-4-argon-high: 76%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Xiaomi: 58%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Yes: 89%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
AI lab F: 50%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 80%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
OpenAI: 51%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Will Muse Wonder debut as #1? (Text Arena)
No: 99%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
1500+: 89%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Anthropic: 95%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Third-best AI Lab end of December?
Meta: 51%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Xiaomi: 21%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027