Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Markets
ByteDance
- Yes17%
- No84%
Volume $36.1K · Liquidity $20.3K
Xiaomi
- Yes21%
- No80%
Volume $31.7K · Liquidity $20.5K
DeepSeek
- Yes31%
- No70%
Volume $24.9K · Liquidity $28.3K
Moonshot AI
- Yes12%
- No89%
Volume $11.8K · Liquidity $17.3K
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense ( (a.k.a. Department of War,
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Tech markets

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+: 83%
24h vol $3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 2026: 84%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
December 31: 100%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027: 20%
24h vol $8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 85%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Unusual Machines: 45%
24h vol $4.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
xAI: 10%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+: 38%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+: 37%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+: 88%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 77%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

