Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 57%
24h vol $3.2M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 66%
24h vol $1.2M · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 72%
24h vol $1.2M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $995.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $676.2K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 44%
24h vol $637.5K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 100%
24h vol $601.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
24h vol $592.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
320-339: 64%
24h vol $510.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 19%
24h vol $395.1K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 67%
24h vol $381.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 60%
24h vol $341.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 40%
24h vol $270.2K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 45%
24h vol $244.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 17%
24h vol $241K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $179.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 56%
24h vol $172.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 97%
24h vol $168.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
320-339: 26%
24h vol $163.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 66%
24h vol $161.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D): 61%
24h vol $152.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 81%
24h vol $147.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 69%
24h vol $116.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
No: 70%
24h vol $115.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola: 74%
24h vol $101.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 68%
24h vol $99.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $99.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 26 - October 28, 2026?
90-114: 43%
24h vol $98.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 31: 98%
24h vol $84.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 94%
24h vol $83.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 89%
24h vol $82.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 65%
24h vol $81.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 94%
24h vol $76.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place
Together: 84%
24h vol $70.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Florida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R) : 81%
24h vol $65.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $63.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
300-319: 14%
24h vol $62.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 69%
24h vol $62.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R): 87%
24h vol $62.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47: 42%
24h vol $61.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 82%
24h vol $61.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 85%
24h vol $60.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 72%
24h vol $59K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R): 78%
24h vol $57.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis: 11%
24h vol $53.1K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $52.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 62%
24h vol $49.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
AZ-01 House Election Winner
Amish Shah (D): 79%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026