Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 67%
24h vol $3.6M · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 82%
24h vol $2.1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 99%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $754.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
24h vol $613.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 72%
24h vol $518.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 51%
24h vol $419.8K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
65-89: 68%
24h vol $386.6K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $353.3K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 64%
24h vol $288.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 17%
24h vol $261.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
300-319: 26%
24h vol $258.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $243.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 68%
24h vol $216.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
24h vol $187.1K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $153.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $143.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $141K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $138.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $137.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 67%
24h vol $125K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 60%
24h vol $124.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $121.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $115.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 100%
24h vol $105.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
260-279: 17%
24h vol $99.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $86.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 30%
24h vol $86.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $86.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 97%
24h vol $81.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 70%
24h vol $81K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 72%
24h vol $79.7K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Yes: 99%
24h vol $70.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47: 41%
24h vol $70.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
24h vol $66.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis: 11%
24h vol $64.5K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $63.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 66%
24h vol $61.2K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 71%
24h vol $60.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 26%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $46.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $45.3K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 35%
24h vol $43.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 45%
24h vol $43.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Committee to Protect Journalists: 10%
24h vol $39.4K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 67%
24h vol $37.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Press Secretary?
Candidate AZ: 50%
24h vol $37.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D): 66%
24h vol $37.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026