Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 69%
24h vol $2.3M · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 98%
24h vol $1.8M · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $1.8M · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $985.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 78%
24h vol $960K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $822.4K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
280-299: 54%
24h vol $812K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 93%
24h vol $742.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 68%
24h vol $524.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $424.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
24h vol $419.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 73%
24h vol $320.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $266.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 72%
24h vol $261K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 66%
24h vol $238.8K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 69%
24h vol $236.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 63%
24h vol $214.7K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 96%
24h vol $200.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 82%
24h vol $191.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 55%
24h vol $176.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 71%
24h vol $172.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 30%
24h vol $160.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
24h vol $159.2K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $150.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $146.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 63%
24h vol $138.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $130.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 71%
24h vol $126.2K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
280-299: 18%
24h vol $125.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $107.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 70%
24h vol $103K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
24h vol $98.5K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $91.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $88.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $86.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 73%
24h vol $83.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 59%
24h vol $83K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 72%
24h vol $81.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 77%
24h vol $75.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 35%
24h vol $73.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
24h vol $69.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $61.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $59.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
24h vol $58.7K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $57.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 47%
24h vol $56.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 66%
24h vol $56K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
VA-05 House Election Winner
John McGuire (R): 63%
24h vol $55.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026