Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 94%
24h vol $3.6M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $100: 100%
24h vol $278.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 72%
24h vol $175K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 80%
24h vol $136.8K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 68%
24h vol $117.3K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 75%
24h vol $90.4K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 57%
24h vol $89K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 28%
24h vol $74.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 85%
24h vol $64.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 71%
24h vol $64.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 81%
24h vol $55.2K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $43K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 22?
$94: 100%
24h vol $41.1K · Ends Oct 22, 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
↓ $4,000: 80%
24h vol $41.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?
No: 99%
24h vol $33.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 93%
24h vol $32.2K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?
↓ $54: 86%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $27.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.4%: 32%
24h vol $25.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 65%
24h vol $24.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500: 50%
24h vol $22.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%: 56%
24h vol $20.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%: 44%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $148: 75%
24h vol $15.8K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
<$1T: 26%
24h vol $15.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 72%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in October 2026?
↑ $660: 67%
24h vol $13.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $54: 65%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
$1.50–$1.75T: 41%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+: 43%
24h vol $11K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Other: 50%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin?
24% to 26%: 96%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↑ $4,050: 67%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 92%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 97%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 37%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
No: 98%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 World GDP Growth
3.1%: 59%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends May 1, 2027
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.10%: 53%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 44%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
October Inflation US - Monthly
0.3%: 39%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 97%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 58%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 62%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.00%: 100%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 68%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
25 bps increase: 86%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?
<$1.062M: 60%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Jan 11, 2027