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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Markets

  • Below 4.85%

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $528.2 · Liquidity $386

  • Below 4.90%

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $260.5 · Liquidity $85.4

  • Below 5.12%

    • Yes59%
    • No42%

    Volume $200.2 · Liquidity $54.4

  • Below 4.95%

    • Yes20%
    • No81%

    Volume $139.2 · Liquidity $264.6

  • Below 5.18%

    • Yes76%
    • No24%

    Volume — · Liquidity $48.6

  • Below 5.15%

    • Yes50%
    • No51%

    Volume — · Liquidity $22.6

  • Below 5.09%

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume — · Liquidity $36.7

  • Below 5.05%

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume — · Liquidity $31

  • Below 5.00%

    • Yes25%
    • No76%

    Volume — · Liquidity $64.1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see:

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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