Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 88%
24h vol $2.6M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↓ $95: 72%
24h vol $239.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 79%
24h vol $138.4K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 73%
24h vol $110.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 56%
24h vol $97.6K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $86.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?
Up: 99%
24h vol $76K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 75%
24h vol $60.5K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 91%
24h vol $57.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $48.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 92%
24h vol $48.2K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 84%
24h vol $46.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 27%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500: 50%
24h vol $36.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 85%
24h vol $35.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 21?
$96: 96%
24h vol $29.3K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 56%
24h vol $28.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
<$1T: 26%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No: 94%
24h vol $26.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027: 23%
24h vol $24.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?
Up: 99%
24h vol $24.7K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $382.50: 77%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
In which month will Anthropic IPO?
November 2026: 69%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
3.50% to 3.99%: 60%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends Jan 9, 2027
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 97%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in October 2026?
↓ $700: 100%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 70%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
$1.50–$1.75T: 39%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+: 43%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $700: 100%
24h vol $10.1K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 73%
24h vol $9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
No change: 65%
24h vol $7K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
October Inflation China - Annual
0.9% to 1.0%: 43%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends Nov 9, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
30M+: 96%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 65%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T: 41%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 81%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 53%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 55%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 89%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Microsoft: 54%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 73%
24h vol $4.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%: 40%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M: 35%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?
No Change: 96%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 95%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 59%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?
<$1.062M: 58%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 11, 2027