Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 87%
24h vol $1.5M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $100: 87%
24h vol $288.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $181.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 93%
24h vol $97.2K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $336: 79%
24h vol $74.5K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 28%
24h vol $63.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 79%
24h vol $60.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 60%
24h vol $58.5K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 71%
24h vol $56.2K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $44.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 87%
24h vol $29.4K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 73%
24h vol $28K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 78%
24h vol $26.5K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No: 94%
24h vol $26.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 87%
24h vol $21K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500: 50%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↑ $775: 65%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?
↓ $56: 61%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
October Inflation China - Annual
0.9% to 1.0%: 41%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends Nov 9, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 53%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027: 23%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↑ $100: 85%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 68%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
↓ $4,100: 89%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↑ $382.50: 86%
24h vol $9.3K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in October 2026?
↑ $700: 92%
24h vol $9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
↑ $780: 58%
24h vol $9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
$1.50–$1.75T: 45%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX: 71%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 19 2026?
↓ $2.90: 74%
24h vol $7.9K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026
53.0 to 53.9: 31%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Nov 2, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 81%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 93%
24h vol $6.8K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9%: 49%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 21, 2027
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 50%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
4.3-4.6%: 42%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?
<$1.062M: 55%
24h vol $4.2K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 73%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4%: 68%
24h vol $4K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T: 40%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?
No Change: 95%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M: 33%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
October Inflation US - Monthly
0.3%: 33%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 50%
24h vol $3K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.6-2.7M: 40%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
25 bps decrease: 85%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 99%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027