Good research prompts make AI answers more useful for prediction market analysis by being specific about the question, the time frame and the sources you trust.
Start With the Resolution Question
Paste or paraphrase the market's exact resolution criteria. Vague prompts produce vague answers that miss what actually decides the market.
Ask for Both Sides
Request reasons an outcome could happen and reasons it could fail. This reduces the risk of only hearing what you already believe.
Request Sources and Uncertainty
Ask the model to name where each point comes from and what it is unsure about, then check those sources yourself.
Worked Example
Instead of "Will the launch happen?", a trader writes: "This market resolves YES if the product ships before the date in its rules. List arguments for and against, note which need verification, and flag anything that may be outdated." The answer is far easier to check.
Key Takeaways
- Include the exact resolution criteria.
- Ask for arguments on both sides.
- Request sources and stated uncertainty.
- Always verify the sources yourself.