From Research to a Probability Estimate

Turning research into a probability estimate is where your notes, AI-assisted or not, become a number you can compare with a prediction market price.

Start From a Base Rate

Ask how often similar events have happened before. This gives a starting point before specific news pushes you up or down.

Adjust for Specific Evidence

Move your estimate modestly for each verified factor. Large jumps should need strong, confirmed evidence.

Compare With the Market

Only after writing your own number should you look at the price. This limits anchoring on what the crowd already thinks.

Worked Example

A trader estimates that similar product launches ship on time about half the time. Verified supply news nudges them to 58%. The market shows 50¢. The gap is modest, so they note it, remember their estimate could be wrong, and keep any position small.

Key Takeaways

• Begin with a base rate.
• Adjust gradually for verified evidence.
• Write your estimate before checking the price.
• A gap with the market is a hypothesis, not a certainty.