Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
September 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $829.2K · Liquidity —
August 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $627.9K · Liquidity —
October 31
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $438.9K · Liquidity $48.3K
September 14
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $421.7K · Liquidity —
August 15
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $257.5K · Liquidity —
August 22
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $186.3K · Liquidity —
September 21
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $142.7K · Liquidity —
November 30
- Yes32%
- No68%
Volume $30.1K · Liquidity $39.3K
December 31
- Yes41%
- No60%
Volume $30K · Liquidity $44.3K
September 7
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $15.1K · Liquidity —
August 12
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $14.4K · Liquidity —
Regras de resolução
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
Mais mercados de Mundo

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29: 56%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends 1 de nov. de 2026

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 20 de out. de 2026

Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 88%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends 31 de dez. de 2026

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
24h vol $171.3K · Ends 31 de dez. de 2026

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $40.2K · Ends 31 de dez. de 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $226.6K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 7%
24h vol $44K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $19.3K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $17.3K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $16K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $15.8K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends 1 de jan. de 2027

