Iran leader end of 2026?

{name}: probabilidades em tempo real

Mojtaba Khamenei
- Yes88%
- No12%
Volume $6.7M · Liquidity $66.5K
Mohammad Khatami
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $5.2M · Liquidity $54.8K
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.7M · Liquidity $65.4K
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.4M · Liquidity $65.9K
Hassan Shariatmadari
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.2M · Liquidity $68.3K
Alireza Arafi
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $2.3M · Liquidity $70.4K
Hassan Khomeini
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.5M · Liquidity $67.4K
No Head of State
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $1.2M · Liquidity $88.7K
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.1M · Liquidity $58.1K
Masoud Pezeshkian
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1M · Liquidity $55.7K
Hassan Rouhani
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $950.2K · Liquidity $65.4K
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $927.2K · Liquidity $59.9K
Maryam Rajavi
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $906.3K · Liquidity $58.5K
Ali Motahari
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $860.2K · Liquidity $60.8K
Abbas Araghchi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $837.7K · Liquidity $65.2K
Ahmad Vahidi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $785.3K · Liquidity $56.1K
Reza Pahlavi
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $698.5K · Liquidity $122K
Sadegh Larijani
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $577.3K · Liquidity $73.8K
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $473.8K · Liquidity $66K
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $442.6K · Liquidity $80.3K
Massoud Rajavi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $436.6K · Liquidity $86.2K
Saeed Jalili
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $425K · Liquidity $74.1K
Ali Asghar Hejazi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $378.3K · Liquidity $74.1K
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $332.5K · Liquidity $68.7K
Mohsen Araki
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $324.8K · Liquidity $75.5K
Nasir Hosseini
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $300.6K · Liquidity $70.5K
Sadegh Mahsouli
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $275.6K · Liquidity $74.8K
Navid Shomali
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $259.8K · Liquidity $82.1K
Mustafa Hijri
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $238.8K · Liquidity $67.6K
Ali Larijani
Closed
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $236.9K · Liquidity —
Reza Pirzadeh
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $187.8K · Liquidity $80.8K
x
- Yes—
- No—
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
z
- Yes—
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Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
br
- Yes—
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Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
bs
- Yes—
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Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
bt
- Yes—
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ca
- Yes—
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ct
- Yes—
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o
- Yes—
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p
- Yes—
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q
- Yes—
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r
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at
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w
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aa
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ab
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ac
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ag
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ah
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ak
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ao
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ap
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ax
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ay
- Yes—
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ck
- Yes—
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bq
- Yes—
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cx
- Yes—
- No—
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ad
- Yes—
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ae
- Yes—
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af
- Yes—
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aq
- Yes—
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ar
- Yes—
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as
- Yes—
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bu
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bv
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bx
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by
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bz
- Yes—
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Other
- Yes—
- No—
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Mohammad Pakpour
Closed
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume — · Liquidity —
bc
- Yes—
- No—
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
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be
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s
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t
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al
- Yes—
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am
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an
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au
- Yes—
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av
- Yes—
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aw
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az
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bi
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bo
- Yes—
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cb
- Yes—
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cc
- Yes—
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cd
- Yes—
- No—
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ce
- Yes—
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cf
- Yes—
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- Yes—
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ch
- Yes—
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ci
- Yes—
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cj
- Yes—
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- Yes—
- No—
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- Yes—
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co
- Yes—
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cr
- Yes—
- No—
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cu
- Yes—
- No—
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cv
- Yes—
- No—
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cw
- Yes—
- No—
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cy
- Yes—
- No—
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- Yes—
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cs
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y
- Yes—
- No—
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Regras de resolução

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Como interpretar essas probabilidades

Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.

Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos

Iran leader end of 2026?

{name}: probabilidades em tempo real

Mojtaba Khamenei

Mohammad Khatami

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

Hassan Shariatmadari

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

No Head of State

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Masoud Pezeshkian

Hassan Rouhani

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Maryam Rajavi

Ali Motahari

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Reza Pahlavi

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

Massoud Rajavi

Saeed Jalili

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

Mohsen Araki

Nasir Hosseini

Sadegh Mahsouli

Navid Shomali

Mustafa Hijri

Ali Larijani

Reza Pirzadeh

x

z

br

bs

bt

ca

ct

o

p

q

r

at

w

aa

ab

ac

ag

ah

ai

aj

cp

cq

u

v

ak

ao

ap

ax

ay

ck

bq

cx

ad

ae

af

aq

ar

as

bu

bv

bw

bx

by

bz

Other

Mohammad Pakpour

bc