Politika Prediction Markets
Vēlēšanas, likumdošana un politiskie notikumi tā, kā tos novērtē tirgus.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Katra cena ir robežās no 0 līdz 1 ASV dolāram, un to var interpretēt kā varbūtību, ko tirgus piešķir konkrētam iznākumam: 0,62 ASV dolāri nozīmē aptuveni 62%. Cenas mainās ar katru darījumu, tāpēc tās atspoguļo tirgus dalībnieku kopējo vērtējumu, nevis garantiju. Pirms tirdzniecības iepazīsties ar iepriekš norādītajiem iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumiem, pārbaudi tirdzniecības apjomu un likviditāti un riskē tikai ar naudu, ko vari atļauties zaudēt.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $933.7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $843.5K · Ends 2026. g. 31. okt.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $812.8K · Ends 2026. g. 31. okt.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $599.3K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $579.2K · Ends 2027. g. 19. apr.
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 69%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 2026. g. 13. okt.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $437.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $412.7K · Ends 2028. g. 8. nov.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $362.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $307.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 46%
24h vol $260.2K · Ends 2026. g. 28. okt.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $189.2K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $170K · Ends 2028. g. 8. nov.
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 26%
24h vol $154.8K · Ends 2026. g. 16. okt.
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 62%
24h vol $154.3K · Ends 2026. g. 25. okt.
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $127.4K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $124.2K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.2K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%: 51%
24h vol $117.7K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $78K · Ends 2028. g. 8. nov.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $69K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $65.8K · Ends 2029. g. 1. janv.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 2027. g. 1. jūl.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $64.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. aug.
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $51.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
24h vol $50.7K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $46.2K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 56%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $45.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends 2026. g. 29. nov.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $43.1K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $40.5K · Ends 2029. g. 1. janv.
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
40-64: 56%
24h vol $38.2K · Ends 2026. g. 14. okt.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $36.9K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $34.5K · Ends 2027. g. 1. jūl.
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $34.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $33.9K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $33.8K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 51%
24h vol $32.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $31.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. jūl.
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $28.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 58%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends 2028. g. 1. janv.
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $26.9K · Ends 2028. g. 1. apr.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $24.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $24.6K · Ends 2029. g. 1. janv.
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $24.2K · Ends 2029. g. 1. janv.