Politika Prediction Markets
Vēlēšanas, likumdošana un politiskie notikumi tā, kā tos novērtē tirgus.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Katra cena ir robežās no 0 līdz 1 ASV dolāram, un to var interpretēt kā varbūtību, ko tirgus piešķir konkrētam iznākumam: 0,62 ASV dolāri nozīmē aptuveni 62%. Cenas mainās ar katru darījumu, tāpēc tās atspoguļo tirgus dalībnieku kopējo vērtējumu, nevis garantiju. Pirms tirdzniecības iepazīsties ar iepriekš norādītajiem iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumiem, pārbaudi tirdzniecības apjomu un likviditāti un riskē tikai ar naudu, ko vari atļauties zaudēt.
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 59%
24h vol $23.2K · Ends 2028. g. 1. janv.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
120-139: 52%
24h vol $21.1K · Ends 2026. g. 13. okt.
NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 96%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
MO-02 House Election Winner
Ann Wagner (R): 77%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $18.4K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
GA-11 House Election Winner
John Cowan (R): 96%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 89%
24h vol $16.7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?
October 31: 12%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 81%
24h vol $15.9K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 70%
24h vol $15.7K · Ends 2026. g. 27. okt.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $14.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $13.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $13K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Alabama Governor Election Winner
Tommy Tuberville (R): 93%
24h vol $12.7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 89%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 53%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes: 92%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 46%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
200+: 25%
24h vol $11K · Ends 2026. g. 16. okt.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends 2026. g. 1. dec.
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 96%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 2026. g. 30. nov.
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $10K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 31: 53%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 89%
24h vol $9.3K · Ends 2027. g. 19. apr.
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
No: 78%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Ilhan Omar arrested by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $8.5K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $8.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D): 60%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 96%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Abbas Araghchi: 43%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
NY-24 House Election Winner
Claudia Tenney (R): 97%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
NM-02 House Election Winner
Gabe Vasquez (D): 92%
24h vol $7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
TX-26 House Election Winner
Brandon Gill (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
200+: 19%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends 2026. g. 20. okt.
GA-09 House Election Winner
Andrew Clyde (R): 96%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.