Mondo Prediction Markets
Geopolitica ed eventi globali.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Ogni prezzo varia da 0 a 1 dollaro e può essere interpretato come la probabilità che il mercato attribuisce a un esito: 0,62 dollari corrispondono a circa il 62%. I prezzi cambiano a ogni operazione, quindi rappresentano una stima collettiva, non una garanzia. Prima di fare trading, controlla le regole per la determinazione dell'esito riportate sopra, il volume degli scambi e la liquidità, e rischia solo denaro che puoi permetterti di perdere.

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $465.5K · Ends 19 apr 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $393.7K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 47%
24h vol $236.3K · Ends 28 ott 2026

Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $185.8K · Ends 26 ott 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $153.8K · Ends 26 ott 2026

NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $146.8K · Ends 3 gen 2027

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
24h vol $122.6K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $78.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $74.1K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 1 lug 2027

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $30.9K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $27.9K · Ends 1 gen 2027

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $22K · Ends 1 lug 2027

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 21%
24h vol $21.2K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 76%
24h vol $20.6K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $20.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $15.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $14.6K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 13: 100%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?
No meeting by December 31, 2027: 83%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends 1 gen 2028

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
UNRWA: 9%
24h vol $12K · Ends 1 apr 2028

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person L: 50%
24h vol $11K · Ends 1 mar 2027

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 88%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Druzkhivka: 36%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends 26 ott 2026

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends 1 gen 2027

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?
Yes: 63%
24h vol $7.9K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $7.9K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Other: 50%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends 1 mar 2027

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
No Next Chancellor before 2028: 62%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 1 gen 2028

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $6.8K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Will Iran target Iraq by...?
October 15: 52%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
3: 43%
24h vol $6K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 64%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends 20 ott 2026

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 80%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
June 30, 2027: 49%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $5K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Spain General Election Winner
PP: 86%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends 30 nov 2026

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Yes: 58%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends 26 ott 2026

