Politique Prediction Markets
Élections, lois et événements politiques évalués par le marché.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Chaque prix varie de 0 à 1 dollar et peut être interprété comme la probabilité que le marché attribue à une issue : 0,62 dollar correspond à environ 62 %. Les prix évoluent à chaque transaction : ils reflètent donc une estimation collective, et non une garantie. Avant de négocier, consultez les règles de résolution ci-dessus, vérifiez le volume des échanges et la liquidité, et ne risquez que l’argent que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $979.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 88%
24h vol $971.1K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 99%
24h vol $781.9K · Ends 31 oct. 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $778.2K · Ends 31 oct. 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 40%
24h vol $736.1K · Ends 19 avr. 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 67%
24h vol $598.8K · Ends 13 oct. 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $353K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $342.6K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
24h vol $331.1K · Ends 28 oct. 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $274.9K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $267.8K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 10 - October 12, 2026?
40-64: 100%
24h vol $239.9K · Ends 12 oct. 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $226.6K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 23%
24h vol $195.5K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $168.3K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 62%
24h vol $159.2K · Ends 25 oct. 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $111.4K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 24%
24h vol $110.5K · Ends 16 oct. 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $110.4K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $87.3K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $80K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $75.1K · Ends 1 janv. 2029
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $72.5K · Ends 1 janv. 2029
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $66.6K · Ends 1 juil. 2027
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $66.2K · Ends 1 janv. 2029
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $61K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $60.9K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1 août 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $56.4K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.5K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $49K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $47.7K · Ends 1 juil. 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $46.2K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 61%
24h vol $45.8K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $45.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 65%
24h vol $45.6K · Ends 29 nov. 2026
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $44.4K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $38.6K · Ends 1 juil. 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $37.5K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $35.2K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 55%
24h vol $34K · Ends 31 déc. 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 64%
24h vol $31.7K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $30.7K · Ends 1 janv. 2029
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $30.5K · Ends 1 avr. 2028
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $29.7K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $28.4K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 62%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends 1 janv. 2028