Politique Prediction Markets
Élections, lois et événements politiques évalués par le marché.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Chaque prix varie de 0 à 1 dollar et peut être interprété comme la probabilité que le marché attribue à une issue : 0,62 dollar correspond à environ 62 %. Les prix évoluent à chaque transaction : ils reflètent donc une estimation collective, et non une garantie. Avant de négocier, consultez les règles de résolution ci-dessus, vérifiez le volume des échanges et la liquidité, et ne risquez que l’argent que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $22.8K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
100-119: 44%
24h vol $22.5K · Ends 13 oct. 2026
MO-02 House Election Winner
Ann Wagner (R): 77%
24h vol $18.8K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 95%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $18.3K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
GA-11 House Election Winner
John Cowan (R): 96%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 88%
24h vol $16.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 81%
24h vol $15.9K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 69%
24h vol $15.7K · Ends 27 oct. 2026
Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $15.4K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $14.5K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $13.7K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $12.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 89%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Alabama Governor Election Winner
Tommy Tuberville (R): 93%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 53%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends 31 déc. 2026
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes: 92%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 46%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends 31 déc. 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
200+: 25%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends 16 oct. 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends 1 déc. 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $10.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 30 nov. 2026
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 96%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $10K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $10K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 31: 53%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 31 déc. 2026
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 89%
24h vol $9.3K · Ends 19 avr. 2027
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Abbas Araghchi: 43%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Ilhan Omar arrested by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $8.5K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $8.5K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
No: 78%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 1 janv. 2027
OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 96%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
NY-24 House Election Winner
Claudia Tenney (R): 97%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
NM-02 House Election Winner
Gabe Vasquez (D): 92%
24h vol $7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
TX-26 House Election Winner
Brandon Gill (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
200+: 19%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends 20 oct. 2026
GA-09 House Election Winner
Andrew Clyde (R): 96%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 63%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 84%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026