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ThePolyAcademy
FI

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet

  • David Lisnard

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $149.6K · Liquidity $93K

  • Jordan Bardella

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $23.5K · Liquidity $16.3K

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    • Yes38%
    • No62%

    Volume $20.1K · Liquidity $36.3K

  • Marine Le Pen

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $17.4K · Liquidity $27.2K

  • François Hollande

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $13.2K · Liquidity $23.3K

  • Carole Delga

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $11K · Liquidity $22.4K

  • Raphaël Glucksmann

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $8.1K · Liquidity $13.9K

  • François Ruffin

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $7.2K · Liquidity $15.5K

  • Fabien Roussel

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $7.2K · Liquidity $17.3K

  • Manuel Bompard

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $6.8K · Liquidity $19.9K

  • Gabriel Attal

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $6.7K · Liquidity $19.1K

  • Édouard Philippe

    • Yes50%
    • No51%

    Volume $5.8K · Liquidity $25.6K

  • Bernard Cazeneuve

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $5.7K · Liquidity $18.1K

  • Sarah Knafo

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $14.1K

  • Ségolène Royal

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $16.9K

  • Clémentine Autain

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $14.5K

  • Juan Branco

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $20.2K

  • Élisabeth Borne

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $17.5K

  • François Bayrou

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $4.2K · Liquidity $19.2K

  • Bruno Retailleau

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $13.9K

  • Yaël Braun-Pivet

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $3.7K · Liquidity $16.1K

  • Marine Tondelier

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $13.4K

  • Olivier Faure

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $15K

  • Clémence Guetté

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $18K

  • Michel Barnier

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $15.6K

  • Sébastien Lecornu

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $14.8K

  • Gérald Darmanin

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $14.5K

  • Dominique de Villepin

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $14.7K

  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $15.6K

  • Mathilde Panot

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $13.2K

  • François Asselineau

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $17.9K

  • Valérie Pécresse

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $16.5K

  • Xavier Bertrand

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $13.2K

  • Jean Castex

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $13.2K

  • Laurent Wauquiez

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $920.7 · Liquidity $11K

  • Éric Zemmour

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $731.3 · Liquidity $17.4K

  • Other

    • Yes33%
    • No68%

    Volume $111.6 · Liquidity $1.2K

Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (

Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä

Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.

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