Siirry sisältöön
ThePolyAcademy
FI

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet

  • Sarah Knafo

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $38.8K · Liquidity $13.7K

  • François Hollande

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $37.7K · Liquidity $14.3K

  • Marine Le Pen

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $35.1K · Liquidity $20.3K

  • Jordan Bardella

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $32.4K · Liquidity $15.8K

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $24.9K · Liquidity $21.4K

  • David Lisnard

    • Yes74%
    • No27%

    Volume $22.8K · Liquidity $32.5K

  • Raphaël Glucksmann

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $21.9K · Liquidity $26.5K

  • Laurent Wauquiez

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $21.6K · Liquidity $15.8K

  • Dominique de Villepin

    • Yes31%
    • No70%

    Volume $21.5K · Liquidity $28.5K

  • Édouard Philippe

    • Yes90%
    • No11%

    Volume $20.5K · Liquidity $14.6K

  • Éric Zemmour

    • Yes82%
    • No19%

    Volume $19.8K · Liquidity $306.1

  • Gabriel Attal

    • Yes23%
    • No78%

    Volume $17.7K · Liquidity $13K

  • Bruno Retailleau

    • Yes59%
    • No41%

    Volume $17.5K · Liquidity $37.9K

  • François Asselineau

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $15.1K · Liquidity $13K

  • Matthieu Pigasse

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $14.5K · Liquidity $17K

  • Marine Tondelier

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $13.1K · Liquidity $25.3K

  • Bernard Cazeneuve

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $12.6K · Liquidity $13.4K

  • Karim Bouamrane

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $11.3K · Liquidity $14.7K

  • Michel-Edouard Leclerc

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $11.1K · Liquidity $13.8K

  • Bally Bagayoko

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $10K · Liquidity $14.6K

  • Juan Branco

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $9.4K · Liquidity $15.1K

  • Jérôme Guedj

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $8.3K · Liquidity $13.9K

  • Teddy Riner

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $8.2K · Liquidity $16.2K

  • Nathalie Arthaud

    • Yes87%
    • No14%

    Volume $8.2K · Liquidity $14.4K

  • Xavier Bertrand

    • Yes11%
    • No90%

    Volume $8.1K · Liquidity $15K

  • Gérald Darmanin

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $6.1K · Liquidity $15K

  • Olivier Faure

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $6K · Liquidity $15.3K

  • François Bayrou

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $13.8K

  • Sébastien Lecornu

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $5.2K · Liquidity $16.4K

  • Carole Delga

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $14.7K

  • Fabien Roussel

    • Yes80%
    • No20%

    Volume $4.7K · Liquidity $824.5

  • Manuel Bompard

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.5K · Liquidity $14.2K

  • Philippe de Villiers

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $13.7K

  • Ségolène Royal

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $15.4K

  • Jean Castex

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $14.5K

  • Jean-Michel Fauvergue

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $13.9K

  • Mathilde Panot

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $3.4K · Liquidity $16.2K

  • Michel Barnier

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $14.3K

  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

    • Yes71%
    • No30%

    Volume $3K · Liquidity $278.2

  • François Ruffin

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $12.7K

  • Delphine Batho

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $14.8K

  • Élisabeth Borne

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $13.7K

  • Clémentine Autain

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $10.8K

  • Yaël Braun-Pivet

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $14K

  • Valérie Pécresse

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $15.2K

  • Manuel Valls

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $13.7K

Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä

Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.

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